Stability Returns to the Grocery Aisle in Q1 2026, Infillion Catalina Shopping Basket Index Shows
The overall rate of grocery inflation reached a point of relative stability in the first quarter of 2026 (Q1 2026), according to Infillion Catalina’s robust, real-time Shopper Intelligence Platform.
The Infillion Catalina’s Shopping Basket Index (SBI), which tracks the aggregate average price changes of 10 common grocery product categories, reveals last year’s re-acceleration has largely leveled off, with a few notable exceptions. The overall YOY inflation rate dropped to 2% from 3% in Q3 2025. This closely mirrors the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index for March 20261, which reports a 1.9% YOY inflation rate for Food at Home. While overall numbers align, CPI reports that dairy products dropped 2% while fruits and vegetable prices rose 4% YoY.
"The Q1 data shows a market finding its footing, where the focus has shifted from managing broad spikes to optimizing performance within specific, volatile categories like Coffee and Frozen Foods," said Adam Van Beck, Infillion Catalina’s Head of Catalina Sales. Catalina was acquired by Infillion in February 2026. "As we move into this new chapter, our goal remains providing the purchase-based insights that help brands and retailers navigate a fluctuating economic landscape."
Coffee Spikes vs. Value-Tier Deflation
Q1 2026 SBI data shows a return to YAGO inflation levels for the aggregate basket, yet individual categories tell a more nuanced story of supply and demand:
The Coffee Exception: At 13%, Coffee remains the primary driver of the index’s inflation rate, unchanged from Q3 2025. While relief may be on the horizon due to predicted strong upcoming harvests in Brazil2, the category’s Q1 prices likely reflects the impact of tariffs3.
Frozen Vegetable Deflation: This category’s inflation rate saw the most dramatic drop, falling to -4%. This can largely be attributed to improved domestic yields and higher efficiencies in Individual Quick Frozen (IQF) technologies4. But higher transportation costs fueled by rising gas prices are expected to reverse this trend5.
The Value Gap in Laundry: Soaps & Detergents moved into deflationary territory at -2%. Value-Priced Laundry Detergent prices fell -8.4%, far outstripping the -4.5% drop in Premium brands6. This suggests that as consumers prioritize essential savings, brands in the value tier are competing more aggressively on price to capture budget-conscious shoppers7.
Looking Ahead
“While the 2% overall inflation rate is a welcome sign of stability, unevenness across core categories persists,” said Van Beck. “With Cereal (-1%) and Paper Products (1%) remaining steady, the focus for the remainder of 2026 will be on how external factors—like shifting energy costs—interact with these newly stabilized baselines.”
1US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index March 2026 vs March 2025.
2Food Ingredients First, March 2026
3Perfect Daily Grind, February 2026
4IQF Vegetable Market Report, January 2026
5FMI, February 2026
6Global Market Insights/Laundry Carem February 2026
7Deloitte 2026 Consumer Products Outlook, January 2026