Grocery Inflation Re-accelerates in Q3 2025, Catalina Shopping Basket Index Shows
The overall rate of grocery inflation experienced a modest re-acceleration in the third quarter of 2025 (Q3 2025) after a period of significant moderation, according to data from Catalina’s robust, real-time Shopper Intelligence Platform.
Catalina’s Shopping Basket Index (SBI), which tracks the aggregate average price changes of 10 common grocery product categories, shows a slight uptick in the overall YOY inflation rate, moving from 2% to 3% for Q3 2025.
“While the two-year trend continues to show dramatic cooling, the latest figures indicate that cost pressures—particularly those related to commodity price spikes and tariff impacts—are re-emerging in select categories,” said Adam Van Beck, Catalina’s Chief Revenue Officer.
Core Category Deflation Offsets Price Spikes
“The most notable development in Q3 2025 is the sharp divergence in category performance,” said Van Beck. “While prices dropped for some goods, other core categories experienced a significant inflationary spike, indicating that easing price pressure is uneven across the store.”
- Re-Acceleration Leader: The price of Coffee saw a massive YOY increase, surging from 5% in Q1 2025 to 13% in Q3 2025 – it is the only category to report a higher inflation rate now than it was two years ago (7% in Q3 2023).
- Upticks After Sharp Declines: Prices of several categories are on the rise again. The cost of Yogurt rose from 4% to 7% in the past six months, approaching its two-year high of 9% in Q3 2023. The price of Hand & Bath Soap rose from 2% to 5% over the same period but remains far below a high of 20% in Q3 2023. Frozen Prepared Foods also posted a 3% increase, moving from -2% to 1% since Q1 2025.
- Slight Moderation: Inflation for Deodorants dropped from 6% to 4% in Q3 2025. Soft Drinks & Water prices also cooled, moving from 5% to 4%, a substantial drop from 18% in Q3 2023.
- Hints of Deflation: Cereal registered a YOY decrease of -1%, down from 1% in Q1 2025.
Drivers of Key Category Shifts
Tariffs1, consumer demand, and global supply chain pressures are fueling the re-emergence of inflation in key categories. Coffee, Yogurt, and Soft Drinks & Water all saw a significant price jump or sustained high inflation rates in Q3 2025:
Coffee: The dramatic price spike of Coffee is the result of a "perfect storm" of geopolitical, climate, and supply-driven factors2:
- Supply Crisis: Severe droughts in Brazil and Vietnam, the world's largest coffee producers, have disastrously reduced crop yields, leading to a major supply shortage.
- Trade Tariffs: New duties have been implemented on imported coffee beans from major producing nations like Brazil.
- Logistics Costs: Global shipping issues, including conflicts affecting key waterways, have further increased the cost of transporting the commodity.
Yogurt: This category’s inflation is being driven by strong consumer demand aligned with health and wellness trends. US sales and production of Yogurt have surged, primarily fueled by the accelerating popularity of high-protein, low-sugar, and functional yogurt options (like Greek yogurt)3. This insatiable demand has reportedly strained manufacturer capacity, supporting the higher pricing levels.
Hand & Bath Soaps: A shift to premium and specialty soaps with unique fragrances, sustainable packaging, and added skincare benefits are contributing to the rise of soap prices. In inflationary times, they’re also seen as a gateway to affordable luxury.4
Frozen Prepared Foods: Frozen prepared food prices are also on the rise due to persistent supply chain issues, rising energy and labor costs, and the impact of climate events on agricultural production.5 Additionally, increasing consumer demand for higher-quality, specialized frozen foods, such as those with functional ingredients or ethnic flavors, drives up production costs and can contribute to higher retail prices.
About Catalina
Catalina is a leader in shopper intelligence and precisely targeted in-store, TV and digital media that personalizes the shopper journey. Powered by an unrivaled real-time shopper database and AI-optimized data science, Catalina helps retailers, CPG brands, and agencies optimize every stage of media planning, execution, and measurement to deliver more than $6 billion in consumer value annually. With operations in the US, Costa Rica and Europe, Catalina has no higher priority than ensuring the privacy and security of the data entrusted to the company and maintaining consumer trust. To learn more, visit www.catalina.com.
1Forbes, “How Trump’s Tariffs Will Impact the Foods and Beverage Industry,” 2025
2Newsweek, “Coffee Prices Are Surging,” 2025
3Modor Intelligence, US Yogurt Market Growth Trends & Forecasts, 2025
4Business Insider, “Expensive Hand Soap is a Gateway to Luxury Shopping,” 2024
5Future of Frozen Food, New Frozen Food Trends & Generational Insights, 2024